The Risks of An Early Spring on Farming
I’m a classically trained project manager which means I view ‘risk’ as being potentially harmful as equally as I view it’s possible benefits. Many people think of risk as only being a bad thing – yet we buy a lottery ticket and risk a small amount of money hoping for the potential benefit that far outweighs the almost certain loss of the money expended.
Like much of North America, we’ve had an abnormally mild winter (I’ve seen snow twice) and an extra warm March (there were shots of people in their bathing suits on the beach in the news yesterday). It’s still early to tell if this is truly the start of spring or a pause of the inevitable but most are convinced that the worst is over. One farmer I spoke with on the weekend told me they are almost 60 days ahead of schedule and are hoping for a record year.
Time will tell if we’re in the throes of spring or just being teased but there are risks for farmers either way. Here’s a few of them:
- The most obvious is the positive possibility of an early growing season which means harvest could be ready sooner. This means possible early cash flow for farmers as well as a potential longer selling season.
- There is also reports of increased yields based on early planting (such as these indications from Manitoba last year)
- A less-than-obvious side-effect from the unseasonably warm winter is that some plants (i.e. Kale) were hearty enough to survive the winter enough that the sun and some water is enough to bring them back to life; enough to bring to market in the next week-to-two.

Once we’re past the optimism, there’s a considerable list of concerns:
- Warmth is not the only thing a seed needs to grow – an early spring (or weather that’s a false indication of such) can lead to moisture problems.
- If frost or a freeze hits and destroys the seed, federal crop insurance (this is in the US, not sure what is in place in Canada), will not cover for the loss of that seed.
- An early spring brings the threat of different types of plant viruses (such as these discovered in peanuts planted in early spring).
- An early heat wave can cause fruit trees to bud which is good unless there’s a subsequent freeze which can kill the delicate buds. This link claims almost every fruit was lost in Tennessee in 2007 after as an Easter frost followed a warm March.
- The warmth helps other things – like pests and insects who get an early start as well. The lack of frozen ground allows them to return to activity early in the year which can threaten the yield of a farmer – or result in crops which are sprayed with more chemical than normal for the concerned consumer. Here’s another article which shares more of the same.
- Statistics show that when March is warm, April and May are often colder than normal.

So let’s get out and enjoy the weather and the moment that’s here now – but also be cautious and hopeful when it comes to planting and for those who depend on the sun to bring us our sustenance!
Do you think it will be a warm, cold or moderate summer?


